Steve Willoughby 27 Apr 09
These notes are to be read in conjuction with the Powerpoint presentation which may be downloaded here.
Good evening everyone. My name is Steve Willoughby, and I’m the co-ordinator for Walden in Transition. I’ll explain what we mean by Transition a bit later.
This film – The Age of Stupid – is about how we will be judged by future generations as they live with the legacy that we’re currently laying down for them, and as we continue our relentless pursuit of consumption, growth and what we call “progress” at any cost. It is also about what can happen if we allow complacency to make us blind to warning signs. It forces us to think about what sort of future we want to build for ourselves, for our children and for future generations, and ask questions about how we are going to achieve it. The good news is that we still have time to plan whatever future we want – but not much time.
We had an early warning back in 1972 with a report called “Limits to Growth” from the Club of Rome. Essentially, it warned about what any mathematician will tell you – that unlimited exponential growth is unsustainable and if unchecked will lead, quite literally, to explosion. This is what the report said … (see slide).
The belief of economists that we need perpetual growth at any cost has survived the scorn of mathematicians. Economists and politicians recoil in horror at the notion of “negative growth”. Our present chancellor tells us that he’s looking forward to the resumption of growth signalling the end of the current economic crisis - but growth in the long term is the problem, not the answer.
There are three interlocking manifestations of the growth crisis that we’re now facing: Climate Change (which is what this film is about), Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the Global Economy.
This is what one of our guest speakers, Jeremy Leggett, referred to as the “Triple Crunch”. We can already see signs of a system under stress with oil being a major factor in world politics, extreme weather events, soaring food costs, and a manifest crisis in the global economy.
So, where are we going, and what are the possible future scenarios? (see slide)
The historical record speaks for itself. There has been exponential growth in energy and resource use, consumption, population and pollution, fuelled by oil and other fossil fuels since the dawn of the industrial age – what we could call the Industrial Ascent. We have now reached the climax of this ascent, the question being – what happens next?
Here are some possible scenarios:
Techno-Fantasy which is a “business as usual” scenario, where we have continuing growth in consumption, energy use and human power. This is more than the planet can support, so we’re talking about colonising other planets, mining the moon, employing technologies that defy the laws of thermodynamics etc. We could call this the Star Trek scenario.
Techno-Stability is based on a seamless conversion from growth based on depleting energy to a steady state based on renewable energies (wind, solar etc). This is the scenario that many environmentalists would have us believe is the way forward. But essentially this is also “business as usual” and fails to recognise the full scale of the problem. It also can’t work under the current economic systems which rely on continuous growth, so there would have to be a major restructuring of our social, political and economic systems. We could call this the “impossible dream”.
Energy Descent In this scenario there is a gradual, managed descent in energy use, population etc using what’s left of our fossil fuel legacy to help build a new social and economic structure. There is a widespread sense of hope, determination and a common sense of purpose. There is a steady state at a realistic point on the scale where we are in balance with our natural environment - in a sense getting back to normal. The peak has effectively ended the globalisation vs localisation debate, and communities are much more localised and self-reliant (no more spring onions from Mexico or beans from Kenya!)
Collapse This is what we could call the “Mad Max” scenario. In a desperate attempt to maintain “business as usual” we start burning more coal, converting coal to liquids, building nuclear power stations etc until climate change reaches a tipping point and/or we reach peak uranium, then the collapse of civilisation. We’re all turned into hairy survivalists, start nicking what remains of each other’s resources, trade in mouldy spuds and roast squirrels for food. This is the world in which the Pete Postlethwaite character finds himself in this film.
So, the most attractive scenario for Transition is the Energy Descent one. By envisioning what we want our future to be we can backcast to the present and create the path needed to manage the Transition, rather than have it manage us.
We are living in fascinating times in which everything is up for grabs. We can use the same creativity and ingenuity that got us to the peak to lead us out of it. This future could be more fulfilling, better connected and enriching than the lifestyles we live today.
Some useful aphorisms (see slide). Another one, recently seen by my son in Manchester: “Nature doesn’t do bailouts”.
Draw attention to climate change talk on 5th May.
Talk and slides can be downloaded from the website.
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