Jeremy Leggett 24 Mar 09
We were very pleased to welcome Dr Jeremy Leggett as the opening speaker at our first series of events. The meeting was attended by 78 people and was chaired by Paul Garland.
Jeremy Leggett with Paul Garland
The theme of Jeremy's presentation was the "triple crunch" of oil depletion, the global recession and runaway climate change. His talk focussed mainly on oil depletion.
Jeremy began by saying that he no longer reads novels. Instead, he reads newspapers for 2 hours a day, finding that real life nowadays outstrips the imaginations of novelists. The dysfunctionality of the banking system, for example, makes for fascinating - if unsettling - reading and shows that there are huge opportunities to redefine how we do things. Transition Towns are a fast-growing social movement which will help to determine the shape of the future.
Politicians acknowledge that a "Global Green New Deal" is needed but there is no effective political leadership, and the civil service no longer supports the political system well. We cannot look to business for solutions since recent events call into question their trustworthiness. Instead, leadership must come from the grassroots e.g. the Transition Movement.
Turning to the Oil Crunch, Jeremy explained that it is a minority view that we are at, or near to, peak oil: the majority are of the opinion that we can carry on until 2030-2040 before any effects become apparent. A report from the Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (available from www.peakoiltaskforce.net - opens in a new window) is the first multi-company attempt to warn about peak oil. Peak oil will hit us hard just as we are about to recover from the Credit Crunch - around 2013.
Jeremy went on to illustrate the extent of the oil depletion problem with a series of slides which raised the following concerns:
- Collapsing giant-field discovery
- Collapsing giant-field production
- Flow rates fall from 2013
- 6-7 years between discovery and production
- Enhanced Oil Recovery (by gas injection etc) only SLOWS the production drop - it doesn't prevent it.
- Phantom reserves (a device used by oil producers who apparently "underestimated" stated reserves to give the impression that supplies are plentiful)
The question is: "Will there be an energy crisis or an energy famine?" The chances are that oil producers will begin to use their oil assets themselves in order to maintain their infrastructures, resulting in an energy famine.
Other concerns include:
- Investment shortfall
- State of aged infrastructure
- Tar sands flow rates too low, and production is carbon-intensive
- Coal to liquid flows too low
- Gas to liquid flows too low
- Absence of oil shale technology
- Gas needed for power
- Age skew and skill shortage (average age of oil worker with relevant experience is 49)
- Legacy issues
Jeremy went on to present two contrasting visions of the future: a grim, polluted, gridlocked world following the "business as usual" model, and the alternative cleaner, greener existence in which renewable resources meet reduced energy requirements, and where transport needs are met by walking, cycling, fewer cars and much better trains. Solar energy is not a "magic bullet", but can make a significant impact.
A Green New Deal - in which there is heavy investment in renewable energy technologies - will create jobs and address all three of the "triple crunch" problems. Standard "business as usual" measures are totally inadequate.
Jeremy Leggett speaking at the Walden in Transition meeting
Report by Stephen Willoughby
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