About Transition

In response to the triple crunch of Peak Oil, Climate Change and global recession, some pioneering communities in the UK, Ireland and beyond are taking an integrated and inclusive approach to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their ability to withstand the fundamental shift that will accompany Peak Oil.

The three toughest challenges facing humankind at the start of this 21st century are Climate Change, Peak Oil and a dysfuntional global economy. The first is well documented and very visible in the media, and the effects of the global recession are very evident. Peak Oil, however, remains under the radar for most people. Yet Peak Oil, heralding the era of ever-declining fossil fuel availability, may well challenge the economic and social stability that is essential if we are to mitigate the threats posed by Climate Change.
The transition initiatives currently in progress in the UK and beyond represent the most promising way of engaging people and communities to take the far-reaching actions that are required to mitigate the effects of Peak Oil, Climate Change and global recession.

Back to Peak Oil
Peak Oil recognises that we are not close to running out of oil. However, we are close to running out of easy-to-get, cheap oil. Very close. That means we’re about to go into energy decline – that extended period when, year on year, we have decreasing amounts of oil to fuel our industrialised way of life.
The key concepts and implications of this are as follows:

of all the fossil fuels, oil is uniquely energy dense and easy to transport.
ever-increasing amounts of oil have fuelled the growth of industrial economies.
all the key elements of industrial societies - transportation, manufacturing, food production, home heating, construction - are totally reliant on oil.
understanding the depletion pattern of oil fields is crucial. There is a consistent pattern to the rate of extraction of oil - and this applies to individual fields, to an oil region, to a country and indeed to the entire planet - namely, the first half of the oil is easy to extract and high quality. However, once about half the recoverable oil has been pumped out, further extraction starts getting more expensive, slower, more energy intensive and the oil is of a lower quality.
this pattern means that the flow of oil to the market, which has been steadily increasing over the past 150 years, will peak. After that, every successive year will see an ever-diminishing flow of oil, as well as an increasing risk of interruptions to supply.
a growing body of independent oil experts and oil geologists have calculated that the peak will occur between 2006 and 2012 (a few years of hindsight is required in order to confirm the peaking point).
technological advances in oil extraction and prospecting will have only a minor effect on depletion rates. As an example, when the US (lower 48) hit their oil production peak in 1972, the rate of depletion over the next decades was high, despite a significant wave of technological innovations.

It’s difficult to overstate what this means to our lives in the developed countries.
To understand the degree to which this will affect the industrial world, here is the opening paragraph of executive summary of a report prepared for the US government in 2005 by an agency of experts in risk management and oil analysis:

"The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking." Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation & Risk Management. Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC

This report only came to light after being buried by the US administration for close to a year. A perusal of the far-reaching implications of the report give a clear indication why the government was so keen to keep it out of the public domain.
Despite the denial by governments, their agencies and oil companies that there is a problem, both Chevron and Total have both admitted that we're at the end of the era of cheap oil.

Jeremy Gilbert, former Chief Petroleum Engineer at BP, in May 2007 said the following:

“I expect to see a peak sometime before 2015… and decline rates at 4-8% per year“ (May 2007)

Several US senators, principally Republican Roscoe Bartlett, are raising the issue in the upper house.
In New Zealand, Jeanette Fitzsimmons, co-leader of the Green Party, is raising awareness about the threats of Peak Oil. In 2006, Helen Clark, the Prime Minister of New Zealand said this:

“[…] oil price is very high because probably we're not too far short from peak production if we're not already there.“
In Australia, the MP Andrew McNamara heading up the Queensland Oil Vulnerability Task force. He is now Queensland's newly appointed Minister for Sustainability, Climate Change Ahead of the impending public release of his government-commissioned report on "Queensland's Vulnerability to Oil Prices", he talks about the importance of relocalisation in the face of oil depletion:
"There's no question whatsoever that community driven local solutions will be essential. That's where government will certainly have a role to play in assisting and encouraging local networks, who can assist with local supplies of food and fuel and water and jobs and the things we need from shops. It was one of my contentions in the first speech I made on this issue in February of 2005... that we will see a relocalisation of the way in which we live that will remind us of not last century, but the one before that. And that's not a bad thing. Undoubtedly one of the cheaper responses that will be very effective is promoting local consumption, local production, local distribution. And there are positive spin offs to that in terms of getting to know our communities better. There are human and community benefits from local networks that I look forward to seeing grow." The Honourable Andrew McNamara, Queensland Minister for Sustainability, Climate Change and Innovation

But apart from a few notable exceptions, national leaders are not stepping up to address these problems in any meaningful way. Yet.
So if the political leaders aren’t going to fix the problem, what is?

Technology is often touted as the panacea for Peak Oil and Climate Change problems. However, a careful review of the reality of these technological solutions indicates their immaturity, their often disastrous environmental consequences and their lack of connection to the real world.
We could dither about, waiting for technology or governments to solve the problem for us. However, general consensus now appears to be that this is a rather high risk option.
It’s up to us in our local communities to step up into a leadership position on this.
We have to get busy NOW to mitigate the effects of Peak Oil. The good news is that many of the solutions and mitigations for Climate Change will also address the threats from Peak Oil - and vice versa. And by focussing our communities on these tasks we can at the same time begin to strengthen our local economies and explore new models in response to global economic collapse.

Taking action: the big picture - initiatives at global, national and local levels
Transition Initiatives exemplify the principle of thinking globally, acting locally. However, it's easy to wonder just how much difference you might make in your own community when the problems are so gigantic.
Well, first of all, even before you count the difference you're making in your community, remember that whenever you do this kind of work, you're inspiring other people. And then they take up the challenge and inspire others, and so it goes on. This way, your small contribution can multiply many, many times over and be truly significant.
It's also good to know that there are schemes in place that are addressing the challenges of Peak Oil and Climate Change at the global and national levels. Transition Initiatives complement these schemes by making sure that the changes they demand in the way we live our day-to-day lives can actually be put into practice at ground level.
Here are the principal ones:

Global:

the Oil Depletion Protocol provides a way for nations to cooperatively manage their descent to lower oil use levels. This protocol provides a model for both oil producing and oil consuming countries to systematically reduce global oil consumption. For further information, go to http://www.oildepletionprotocol.org
Contraction & Convergence offers a mechanism for reducing global carbon emissions and establishing much greater levels of equity in peoples’ and nations’ right to emit carbon. An excellent resource for this scheme is http://www.climatejustice.org.uk/about/

National: energy rationing systems appear to hold the greatest promise for reducing our fossil fuel consumption at the national level. The government is already tentatively talking about this highly practical solution. See www.teqs.net for the full story.

Local: this is where local Transition Initiatives play a significant role. In essence, this is a process of relocalising all essential elements that a community needs to sustain itself and thrive. It builds local resilience in the face of the potentially damaging effects of Peak Oil while dramatically reducing the community's carbon footprint. In this way, it addresses both Peak Oil and Climate Change.

Several cities in the US and well over 100 communities around the world are setting off on their own relocalisation journeys. For example, at the city level, Portland in Oregon (population 550,000) has just published their Peak Oil initial report for public consultation. Their opening paragraph explains their concerns:

"In the past few years, powerful evidence has emerged that casts doubt on that assumption [that oil and natural gas will remain plentiful and affordable] and suggests that global production of both oil and natural gas is likely to reach its historic peak soon. This phenomenon is referred to as “Peak Oil.” Given both the continuous rise in global demand for these products and the fundamental role they play in all levels of social, economic and geopolitical activities, the consequences of such an event are enormous."

Portland has actually incorporated the Oil Depletion Protocol in its targets - it aims to reduce its oil and gas consumption by 2.6% per year, reaching a 25% reduction by 2020.
Here in the UK, a growing number of communities are looking towards the energy descent planning work that began in Kinsale in Ireland and is continuing in Totnes in Devon.
There are many excellent examples of energy reduction programmes in place in the UK under the "sustainability" banner. However, it's only when sustainability principles are combined with an understanding of Climate Change and Peak Oil that a fully integrated approach to the solutions can follow.

The Transition Model – what exactly is it?
The Transition Model is a loose set of realworld principles and practices that have been built up over time though experimentation and observation of communities as they drive forward to build local resilience and reduce carbon emissions.
It might help to have the various elements outlined here.

Underlying awareness
Underpinning the Transition Model is a recognition of the following:

Climate Change and Peak Oil require urgent action
life with less energy is inevitable and it is better to plan for it than be taken by surprise
industrial society has lost the resilience to be able to cope with energy shocks
we have to act together and we have to act now
regarding the world economy and the consumptive patterns within it, as long as the laws of physics apply, infinite growth within a finite system (such as planet earth) simply isn't possible.
we demonstrated phenomenal levels of ingenuity and intelligence as we raced up the energy curve over the last 150 years, and there's no reason why we can't use those qualities, and more, as we negotiate our way down from the peak of the energy mountain
if we plan and act early enough, and use our creativity and cooperation to unleash the genius within our local communities, then we can build a future that could be far more fulfilling and enriching, more connected and more gentle on the earth than the lifestyles we have today.

So what are we doing in Saffron Walden?
“Walden in Transition” is an informal group of individuals which sets out to generate discussion of the issues and to harness our collective creativity and energy as a community to create a sustainable way of life. What brings us together is a desire to have the conversation about how we respond to the realities of the challenges, recognising also that we don't have all the answers.

Our mission is to re-localise our town, making it vibrant, resilient, truly sustainable and fun to live in.

Find out more, including details of how to join us, at www.walden-in-transition.org.uk or call 01799 501456.

Adapted from Transition Initiatives Primer available at http://transitiontowns.org/TransitionNetwork/Primer

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